Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 26.865589 29.512491 32.426200 35.894067 39.938796 44.544465 50.239618
2025-07-27 22.785701 26.295478 30.462053 35.858838 42.796335 51.610344 63.996916
2025-08-03 19.806107 23.706196 28.608575 35.399624 44.870558 58.137750 79.227732
2025-08-10 17.647647 21.732888 27.106813 34.975614 46.749589 64.780564 97.131852
2025-08-17 16.133985 20.349317 26.113339 34.975264 49.116972 72.714969 120.713289
2025-08-24 14.823517 19.056974 25.030182 34.594064 50.726225 79.815680 146.651902
2025-08-31 13.762339 17.982884 24.100854 34.253098 52.262557 87.216343 178.154135
2025-09-07 12.870206 17.054427 23.263833 33.899956 53.655272 94.775261 216.258616
2025-09-14 12.143695 16.297646 22.596057 33.708536 55.276584 103.407814 266.431461
2025-09-21 11.454215 15.535318 21.835441 33.233813 56.219417 110.845185 322.302253
2025-09-28 11.217310 15.441574 22.131126 34.681846 61.471125 131.680583 473.980916
2025-10-05 10.700677 14.867048 21.571269 34.444562 62.965430 142.912143 608.870297
2025-10-12 10.257651 14.388888 21.148632 34.451589 65.139102 157.944473 836.376434
2025-10-19 9.927831 14.071023 20.974492 34.933538 68.637956 180.157783 1295.275712
2025-10-26 9.526326 13.608309 20.504689 34.745131 70.395323 197.501652 1932.284319
2025-11-02 9.145787 13.156500 20.017215 34.456450 71.835245 215.069825 3026.813437
2025-11-09 8.844234 12.818816 19.709646 34.517435 74.309291 240.169057 5856.879082
2025-11-16 8.514576 12.413950 19.246210 34.173388 75.519895 260.595801 12126.973876
2025-11-23 8.213069 12.041058 18.815660 33.853026 76.749372 283.136268 35901.456795
2025-11-30 7.931207 11.687597 18.397390 33.512997 77.856373 307.015065 314630.555168
2025-12-07 7.686800 11.387309 18.060826 33.328242 79.463745 337.480370 NaN
2025-12-14 7.427548 11.048530 17.627649 32.863047 80.006137 361.608542 NaN
2025-12-21 7.384990 11.091698 17.946542 34.287924 87.871200 468.146082 NaN